Lorna Tilbian Columnist The lucky, the unlucky and the abundantly blessed F sheet in these uncertain times. One city analyst wrote at the time irst, the lucky: with Covid-19 decimating real of the IPO that Ocado was worth zero: Ocado starts with an 0, recreational businesses while boosting virtual online ends with an 0 and is worth 0. How times change. activity, its hard not to admire the lucky timing of But maybe unlucky lack of long-term thinking is prevalent vendors in the hotel and hospitality industry during last everywhere in business, where the hunger for quick returns years M&A frenzy. In the now struggling pub sector, the overcomes the patience needed to build a world-beating winners curse befell Li Ka-shing, Hong Kongs richest man, who enterprise? Leading media companies such as Reed acquired Greene King for an eye-watering 4.6bn, including debt, International, Pearson and Granada once owned sizeable stakes while TDR Capitals private equity-owned Stonegate Pub in ky ritish ky roadcasting , which they sold long Company took over Ei Group for a hefty 1.3bn. Both great before Skys 30bn takeover by Comcast in 2018. Rupert leisure businesses, but very hard or near impossible to make Murdoch painstakingly built Sky over nearly 30 years from its a return in these surreal, socially distanced times. shaky inception in 1990 to its triumphant disposal. Indeed, Similarly, in the events and conferences business, the canny Granadas holding in Sky alone would be worth more than the Neville Buch, who built and sold Blenheim Exhibitions to United whole of ITV today. Similarly, estate agents Countrywide and News & Media in the 1990s, sold Tarsus, his second successful onnells alongside the alifax and oyal un lliance were exhibitions venture, to Charterhouse private equity in 2019. founding shareholders in Rightmove, Lucky timing, or perfect timing? the property portal, which they I suspect it was the 11th year of the initially sold down in IPO in 2006 longest bull market and record levels and, finally, fully over further sale of global debt that made this seasoned Sometimes, in retrospect, downs. Today, Rightmove is a entrepreneur think things were as luck can be turned on its head FTSE 100 company capitalised at good as they could get. How right and become sheer bad luck for more than 5bn and worth multiples he was. simply thinking short term of the near 50m valuation of Meanwhile, Elegant Hotels, the Countrywide itself. Like the best owner and operator of seven freehold wines, maturation and ageing make hotels and resorts in Barbados, had the best companies richer. the good fortune of a bid late last year from the worlds largest Finally, the abundantly blessed: in contrast to unlucky hotel operator, Marriott International, while The Ritz in short-term vision, some companies have persisted long term and Piccadilly, owned by the Barclay brothers and family, was spawned global leaders such as Racal Electronics and Acorn acquired by Qatari interests from the rich Gulf state earlier this Computers. Racal was founded in 1950, listed on the London year. The lucky shareholders and owners of these operations sold Stock Exchange and was once a constituent of the FTSE 100 at the very top of the cycle. What price are these assets today? index before being purchased by Thomson-CSF of France in What level of operating losses? What bank debts and covenants? 2000 but it is best known today for being the parent company Second, the unlucky: sometimes, in retrospect, luck can be of Vodafone, the leading multinational telecoms group. turned on its head and become sheer bad luck for simply thinking Similarly, Acorn Computers was established in 1978 and broken short term. For example, John Lewis owned 29% of Ocado at up into several independent operations in 1998, but its legacy inception and sold down half its holding at the initial public lives on in Arm, whose technology is predominant in the mobile offering I in , and the balance in for m. ow phone and personal digital assistant microprocessor market. that stake would be worth nearly 6bn, enough to invest in lessed are the long term visionary planners, for their offshoots revitalising the core retail business, bolstering the pension fund, will inherit the earth. paying down bank debt, and holding a strong cash-rich balance 41 Impact ISSUE 31 20_pp40-41_Lorna_Tilbian.indd 41 18/09/2020 11:49