CA S E S T U DY Are aircraft accidents on the rise? Exploring the facts behind the perception By Captain Jeremy Feldman, The Log Chief Editor R ecent aviation incidents in the United States, such as the near-miss at Chicago Midway International Airport involving a Southwest Airlines flight and a private jet, and the mid-air collision at Washington DC, have raised concerns about air travel safety and how the accident rate seems to be increasing. However, data from the UKs Department for Transport (DfT) shows that commercial air transport accidents have remained stable, or even declined, over time. What the data shows The UK DfTs AVI0401 data set, based on records from the Civil Aviation Authority, provides clear statistics on aviation safety. Despite the growing number of flights, accident rates for commercial air transport have not increased and have remained relatively low over the past 10 years. This suggests that the aviation industry continues to maintain high safety standards. Why does it seem like accidents are increasing? Even though data shows a steady or declining accident rate, many people believe aviation is becoming less safe. Several factors may contribute to this perception. 1. Media coverage: Aviation incidents, even minor ones, get widespread media attention. This makes them seem more common than they are. 2. More flights, more reports: As air travel increases, the total number of reported incidents naturally rises. However, this does not mean that the accident rate has gone up. 3.Better reporting systems: Airlines and regulators are now better at identifying and documenting issues. While this helps improve safety, it may make it seem as if more things are going wrong. 4.Randomised incidents: Looking at significant aviation incidents from the past few years, there is very little correlation between cause and effect. Most of the recent incident causes are seemingly unrelated, although investigations are still ongoing. If we assume, then, that incidents are down to the random nature of events, statistically, we can expect unrelated events to cluster randomly, rather than be distributed evenly. The accident rate is not increasing; events are occurring in random clusters. Recent US aviation incidents In early 2025, the US National Transportation Safety Board reported 87 aviation accidents in the first two months of the year; in 2024, there were a total of 1,643 accident/incidents. While these numbers may sound alarming, they include all aviation sectors, not just commercial airlines. In reality, fatal accidents involving large passenger jets remain extremely rare. In the aftermath of an aviation disaster, a 10 THE LOG Spring 25 pp10-11 News Washington DC.indd 10 17/03/2025 14:10