Annual conference David Spiegelhalter says statisticians must listen to people and know their concerns Demonstrating trustworthiness Statistician David Spiegelhalter reflected on how statistics have been communicated during the Covid-19 pandemic, stressed the importance of trustworthiness, and warned that data alone cannot make decisions. Like other scientists, Spiegelhalter has received an influx of media invitations in the past year. He said: One thing I have learned is that you should stick to what you know about and shut up about everything else. I am a statistician, but nobody understands what statisticians are they ask you about what people feel about it. I dont know, because Im not a psychologist. He added: Basically, I just try to explain things; I havent got a side or an agenda for example, Im not saying we need to lock down more. I havent got an agenda, except use the data in the best way possible, and make that data accessible in a clear and transparent way. Spiegelhalter said it is not good for the scientific community when its unclear to audiences whether scientists are discussing the state of things or their own opinions. He said: I dont mind people having an opinion, but just make it clear when youre moving on from the facts to what you think should be done. Despite frustrations over some media reporting the golden oldies of horror stories that are the daily death figures being one Spiegelhalter said: I think the media, as a whole, have done very well indeed, and are getting better. However, he added: When political journalists try to explain the specificity of a diagnostic test, I just fall about laughing. Thats not their job its a challenge for anybody. The pandemic has been full of unknowns, but Spiegelhalter said trustworthiness, rather than certainty, should be the aim of communication. Our research suggests very strongly that, if youre confident about your uncertainty, the audience does not lose trust in you theres clearly a strong feeling we have to be certain, but thats completely wrong as far as we can see. The main thing is to demonstrate trustworthiness. Onora ONeill [philosopher and member of the House of Lords] emphasises that its not to do with how I can get myself trusted, but how I can demonstrate trustworthiness. This is particularly important for statisticians generating large volumes of information, Spiegelhalter added. Statisticians also have to listen to people, he said. You dont just communicate you have to know the audience, know their concerns and treat them with respect. Spiegelhalter expects the pandemic to change how evidence is used by governments, but he cautioned against relying too much on data. Dont follow the data. It does not tell you what to do. This idea of following the science, that data will offer up its secrets, is crass. Data does not tell you what to do but I wouldnt want to make decisions without it. For more coverage, see research-live.com 20 Impact ISSUE 33 2021_pp16-21_Conference .indd 20 26/03/2021 09:57