By First Officer Matthew Martin, Log Board member THE RISE OF CHINESE-MADE AIRCRAFT Comac’s C919 may be having flight-test issues, but this narrow-body twinjet airliner is likely to become the jet of choice for airline accountants as it attempts to be more fuel efficient and lower cost than Boeing and Airbus viation is very much a duopoly between Boeing and Airbus, which have captured the majority of the marketplace with their heavy and wide-bodied aircraft. Figures from 2017 show that Airbus has delivered 10,921 aircraft and Boeing 18,710. In comparison, Bombardier – which now owns the Learjet, Challenger, CRJ and Q series – had delivered around 7,000 aircraft by 2017. Bombardier would be one of the next big aircraft manufacturers to deliver a range of much smaller jets. Medium-range jet marketplace It would be hard to envisage anyone being able to pump up production and compete with the ‘Big Two’ in every segment of their production. Boeing and Airbus have a long history of aircraft development and – as we see four-engine jets phased out in favour of models that are more cost- and environmentally sensitive – competition is likely to be more focused in certain areas. The main competition within airlines seems to be in medium- range jets, such as the A320 and B737, with 8,000 and 10,000 built to date, respectively. It is these medium-range jets that are the workhorses of airlines and often make the most profit. As of 2006, there was an average of 1,250 Boeing 737s airborne at any one time, with two departing or landing somewhere every five seconds. There are very few private companies with aircraft that could compete directly with the A320 and B737. The likes of the Ejet 175 and 195 compete in slightly different markets for regional airlines’ expanding summer routes, and are not direct like-for-like competitors. Good competition So what could compete against the A320 and B737? Perhaps, somewhat surprisingly, the Comac C919 (Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China Ltd, a state-owned company). The launch customer for this airliner will be China Eastern Airlines, which has a mixed fleet of Boeing and Airbus, and is predominately state-owned. The C919 is a narrow-body, twinjet airliner, which launched its programme in 2008 to make a Chinese-built aircraft, carrying between 156 and 168 passengers up to 3,000nm, primarily to compete against Boeing 737 MAX and Airbus A320neo. As of August 2018, Comac has more than 100 commitments, including 300 firm orders, largely from Chinese airlines. In 2012, the C919 order book stood at 380 units worth US$26bn, averaging $68.4m each. Approximate market values in 2013 were $49.2m for the Airbus A320neo, 51% less than its $100.2m list price, and $51.4m for the Boeing 737 MAX-8, 49% less than its $100.5m list price. In June 2015, China national radio predicted a $50m list price, cheaper than those for the B737 or A320 list prices. Flight-testing issues To date, only three C919s have been built, and the first test flight was on 5th May 2017. At the time, Comac had planned a flight- est programme of 4,200 flight hours with an introduction to service planned for 2020. The second test flight did not happen for another five months. This delay was because of the programme immaturity – while early flying is at low speed and altitude, faster and high-altitude flying are much more demanding. The discovery of aeroelastic flutter limited flight testing, as it required longer ground vibration testing and intrumentation, which were not ready. IT WOULD BE HARD TO ENVISAGE ANYONE BEING ABLE TO COMPETE WITH THE ‘BIG TWO’ IN EVERY SEGMENT OF PRODUCTION In June 2018, it was reported that the flight-test aircraft had been grounded for additional modifications, extending the schedule further. The two original prototypes were having their flaps and tail planes modified – because of delamination of the carbon-fibre, reinforced plastic elevators – as well as modifications to their fuel tanks. The third test aircraft was also being modified and maximum-rate pressurisation was tested. As three other planes will be available in 2019, Comac maintains first deliveries will be in 2021. Comac is also trying to win customers for its smaller ARJ21 regional jet, which began commercial operation in 2016. So far, the company has delivered just four of the planes, all to Sichuan-based Chengdu Airlines, in which Comac is a major shareholder. Several companies have signed agreements to assist with the development of the C919, including Pratt & Witney and CFM International, which have offered to provide engines for the aircraft. The CFM LEAP-1C was chosen. In 2011, Ryanair signed an agreement to assist in the development of the C919. Original development costs were predicted to be ¥9.5bn, but the actual cost is estimated to be more than ¥20bn. Further delays The development schedule of the C919 looks likely to slip further beyond 2021, given the current flight-test issues. However, a delivery with the launch customer is still possible. There are many problems that the jet will face: certification to fly in different regulatory jurisdictions is likely to be hard to obtain, so it will probably become a domestic jet within mainland China first. Once the prototype and flight testing have been completed, full-scale production facilities will have to be built; at this stage, even delivery of an aircraft a month could be some time away. It is entirely possible that, by the late mid-century, the C919 will be the jet of choice for airline accountants as it attempts to be more fuel efficient and lower cost than the Big Two. There are already design plans for the C929, a twin-engine, twin- aisle, long-range wide-body aircraft, carrying 250-290 passengers; and the C939 – another wide-body passenger aircraft, with first flights proposed for 2023, launching in 2026. However, I think flying on these aircraft will be a choice for my children rather than me – and I doubt I will ever complete a C919 type rating. TECH LOG THE RISE OF CHINESE-MADE AIRCRAFT By First Officer Matthew Martin, Log Board member